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【天风金工】公募加仓了多少蓝筹?兼谈大势与风格

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月16日 04:57:29
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(原)(标)(题)(:【天)(风)(金)(工)(】公)(募)(加)(仓)(了)(多)(少)(蓝)(筹)(?兼)(谈)(大)(势)(与)(风)(格)(
在)(5月)(19日)(之)(前)(,我)(们)(今)(年)(对)(市)(场)(的)(判)(断)(都)(是)(震)(荡)(格)(局)(,3300点)(是)(震)(荡)(上)(沿)((卖)(点)(),3100是)(震)(荡)(下)(沿)((买)(点)(),非)(常)(精)(准)(的)(捕)(捉)(了)(上)(半)(年)(的)(市)(场)(节)(奏)(。从)(5月)(19日)(开)(始)(,我)(们)(给)(出)(的)(投)(资)(建)(议)(是)(“震)(荡)(格)(局)(首)(次)(转)(为)(下)(跌)(格)(局)(,反)(弹)(减)(仓)(!”,旗)(帜)(鲜)(明)(的)(提)(出)(谨)(慎)(信)(号)(。截)(止)(上)(周)(五)(,创)(业)(板)(综)(8个)(交)(易)(日)(下)(跌)(5.29%,中)(证)(1000下)(跌)(5.53%,多)(数)(个)(股)(跌)(幅)(惨)(重)(。上)(周)(如)(此)(大)(的)(利)(好)(,也)(未)(能)(引)(起)(市)(场)(的)(反)(弹)(,相)(信)(趋)(势)(才)(是)(最)(正)(确)(的)(理)(解)(这)(个)(市)(场)(,虽)(然)(上)(周)(我)(们)(脱)(离)(了)(模)(型)(,单)(独)(分)(析)(了)(一)(下)(减)(持)(新)(规)(的)(影)(响)(,市)(场)(的)(表)(现)(远)(远)(弱)(于)(我)(们)(的)(预)(期)(,好)(在)(我)(们)(秉)(持)(反)(弹)(减)(仓)(的)(操)(作)(建)(议)(。
天)(风)(金)(工)(择)(时)(体)(系)(显)(示)(wind全)(A指)(数)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(仍)(在)(延)(续)(,且)(在)(进)(一)(步)(增)(强)(,我)(们)(定)(义)(的)(用)(来)(区)(别)(市)(场)(环)(境)(的)(wind全)(A长)(期)(均)(线)((120日)()和)(短)(期)(均)(线)((20日)()的)(距)(离)(继)(续)(拉)(大)(,20日)(线)(收)(于)(4152点)(,120日)(线)(收)(于)(4345点)(,长)(期)(均)(线)(位)(于)(短)(期)(均)(线)(之)(上)(,由)(上)(周)(的)(-4.3%变)(为)(-4.6%,仍)(运)(行)(在)(我)(们)(定)(义)(的)(下)(跌)(市)(格)(局)((小)(于)(-3%),显)(示)(wind全)(A指)(数)(长)(期)(指)(标)(进)(入)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(。
目)(前)(指)(数)(已)(经)(是)(第)(三)(周)(处)(于)(下)(跌)(市)(中)(,根)(据)(我)(们)(模)(型)(的)(设)(计)(,在)(下)(跌)(格)(局)(中)(我)(们)(模)(型)(的)(建)(议)(都)(是)(回)(避)(,反)(弹)(提)(供)(的)(都)(是)(减)(仓)(机)(会)(,尤)(其)(是)(面)(临)(6月)(各)(种)(流)(动)(性)(的)(考)(验)(,从)(风)(险)(控)(制)(的)(角)(度)(,回)(避)(也)(是)(一)(个)(不)(错)(的)(选)(择)(。
我)(们)(市)(场)(判)(断)(模)(型)(有)(一)(个)(核)(心)(假)(设)(,就)(是)(风)(险)(资)(产)(的)(趋)(势)(性)(运)(行)(特)(征)(,在)(趋)(势)(来)(临)(之)(际)(,各)(类)(投)(资)(者)(会)(不)(断)(加)(入)(到)(趋)(势)(之)(中)(强)(化)(趋)(势)(,形)(成)(趋)(势)(的)(自)(我)(实)(现)(,因)(此)(顺)(应)(趋)(势)(不)(预)(测)(就)(是)(最)(佳)(的)(预)(测)(,趋)(势)(的)(扭)(转)(需)(要)(非)(常)(强)(大)(的)(外)(生)(力)(量)(。非)(常)(显)(然)(,在)(趋)(势)(形)(成)(之)(后)(,右)(侧)(交)(易)(会)(比)(左)(侧)(交)(易)(来)(的)(性)(价)(比)(更)(高)(,因)(为)(趋)(势)(的)(形)(成)(往)(往)(会)(过)(度)(反)(应)(,我)(们)(永)(远)(不)(知)(道)(趋)(势)(的)(顶)(或)(者)(底)(在)(什)(么)(地)(方)(,等)(待)(市)(场)(的)(右)(侧)(信)(号)(也)(许)(是)(明)(智)(之)(举)(。
对)(于)(风)(格)(,目)(前)(也)(形)(成)(了)(上)(证)(50的)(向)(上)(趋)(势)(和)(创)(业)(板)(的)(向)(下)(趋)(势)(,我)(们)(的)(建)(议)(和)(市)(场)(判)(断)(是)(一)(致)(的)(,就)(是)(顺)(应)(趋)(势)(,上)(证)(50向)(上)(趋)(势)(中)(没)(有)(必)(要)(做)(左)(侧)(逃)(顶)(交)(易)(,因)(为)(不)(知)(道)(顶)(在)(哪)(里)(,等)(待)(顶)(部)(的)(右)(侧)(信)(号)(性)(价)(比)(更)(高)(,同)(样)(对)(于)(创)(业)(板)(也)(是)(类)(似)(的)(处)(理)(,每)(一)(次)(的)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(都)(是)(由)(不)(断)(的)(抄)(底)(割)(肉)(形)(成)(的)(,耐)(心)(等)(待)(右)(侧)(信)(号)(的)(出)(现)(,投)(资)(本)(身)(就)(是)(一)(次)(内)(心)(的)(修)(行)(。
从)(我)(们)(测)(算)(的)(仓)(位)(数)(据)(上)(看)((平)(时)(准)(确)(性)(有)(限)(,在)(最)(近)(风)(格)(分)(化)(极)(大)(时)(具)(有)(参)(考)(价)(值)(),过)(去)(一)(个)(月)(公)(募)(股)(票)(与)(混)(合)(型)(基)(金)(在)(上)(证)(50为)(代)(表)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(上)(的)(配)(置)(增)(加)(幅)(度)(有)(限)(,我)(们)(测)(算)(的)(结)(果)(显)(示)(股)(票)(型)(基)(金)(目)(前)(仓)(位)(约)(为)(88%,前)(一)(个)(月)(为)(89%,其)(中)(配)(置)(在)(上)(证)(50为)(代)(表)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(上)(占)(净)(资)(产)(的)(比)(重)(为)(17%附)(近)(,一)(个)(月)(前)(为)(19%;从)(混)(合)(型)(基)(金)(来)(看)(,整)(体)(仓)(位)(从)(55%提)(升)(至)(58%,对)(蓝)(筹)(股)(的)(配)(置)(上)(占)(净)(资)(产)(的)(比)(例)(从)(9.2%上)(升)(到)(12.27%,有)(一)(定)(幅)(度)(的)(增)(加)(,由)(于)(混)(合)(型)(基)(金)(整)(体)(的)(规)(模)(约)(为)(股)(票)(型)(基)(金)(规)(模)(的)(8倍)(,主)(动)(股)(票)(型)(基)(金)(资)(产)(规)(模)(在)(2100亿)(左)(右)(,偏)(股)(混)(合)(型)(规)(模)(在)(1.7万)(亿)(;整)(体)(上)(看)(公)(募)(基)(金)(对)(蓝)(筹)(的)(配)(置)(有)(所)(增)(加)(,过)(去)(一)(个)(月)(净)(增)(加)(的)(配)(置)(金)(额)(在)(460亿)(左)(右)(,但)(实)(际)(占)(比)(并)(不)(高)(。
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